Make It Cheap, Make It Reliable
Everybody is after building the next big thing right now. And honestly, I get it. But the frontier labs are going to eat your lunch.
Every new model is exponentially better than the last one, and whatever you build on top of it is stale in a couple of months. We used to say distribution is the moat. But you don’t have a moat when you don’t control the model.
I’ve watched it happen with a lot of YC companies. They pivot, and then pivot again, trying to find something that sticks. The ones with big coffers can afford to be wrong a few times. But how many of the others can? Most of them are just placing a bet and hoping this one is the one. I think a lot of money is going to get burned before anyone figures out what sticks and what doesn’t.
Now, I’m not saying they’re wrong about AI. It is the new interface, and there are going to be a lot of agents. But people still have the purchasing power, and people take time. Look at mobile. It took years before the masses picked it up and made it their own. AI is going to be the same. A couple of years at least.
Because right now, most people are still on the same interfaces they got used to back in 2015. They learned them once, they’re comfortable, and they don’t want anyone asking them to learn something new. They just want their lives to be easy.
And it doesn’t help that AI has a bad rep right now. Most of these companies are going after the enterprise, trying to replace the workforce, and every other week there’s another story about data centers guzzling water.
Then there’s the slop. Comments, posts, even whole pieces of software, generated and thrown out there without anyone reviewing any of it. Even this blog is written with the help of AI, but I read every word before it goes out. Most of what you see out there, nobody even read. And it sticks. Now there are people who hate something the moment they find out it was made with AI.
So everyone says they want human-made stuff now. Then they see what a human charges, and suddenly AI is fine.
Which brings up the basic question. What do people actually want?
Sometimes they know. Sometimes they don’t. And what they say they want isn’t always what they end up picking. But there are always two clear indicators. Price and time. How much it costs, and how long it takes to get something done. That was the whole promise of AI, right? It was going to save us both.
So where is all that?
Building software did get cheap. That part is true. Anyone can put together an app in a matter of minutes now. But the stuff people actually pay for every month still costs the same as it did a few years ago, and some of it costs more, because now there’s an AI tier on top. It doesn’t save them any more time either. It’s the same clicks, the same forms, the same waiting. Somewhere along the way, all those savings just never made it to the people using the software.
That’s the step everyone is skipping. Before chasing what’s next, make the stuff we actually use every day cheaper and easier. You can figure out the next big thing while you’re at it.
And I know what people will say. If anyone can build an app in minutes now, why would anyone pay for one? Where’s the business in that?
See, that’s the part people miss.
Nobody wants to build it. They want to use it. They want to pay less.
Plenty of people have tried building it themselves, and plenty of them burnt their hands. Because it’s not the building part that’s hard. It’s the maintenance. Keeping it running, fixing it when it breaks, updating it when something changes underneath. That’s the tax, and nobody wants to pay it.
This is where AI actually fits right now. Not as a shiny new interface people have to learn, but behind the scenes, making the stuff people already use cheaper and quicker, and taking the maintenance off their hands. Their software should be getting cheaper because of AI, not more expensive.
And it has to be reliable. People need something they can count on, not something that gives them a different answer every time they ask. Get that right first, then ramp up the usage. Slow and steady. Let people evolve to accommodate it.
Because most people don’t care yet. They’re sitting on the fence, waiting to see where this goes. Apart from us software engineers. We seem to be completely hooked.
Opus 5.5 helped me write this blog